FY27 Appropriations · Calls on the Record

# FY27 appropriations riders: what survives?

created 2026-08-31 · evidence boundary 2026-08-24

Which FY27 House appropriations riders are likely to survive? These provision-level calls are made now and gradeable later.

**Evidence boundary: 2026-08-24.** The calls themselves carry one of two boundaries: nine bills were investigated against a record closed on 2026-07-28; four vehicles that did not exist then (Defense, Transportation-HUD, Interior, the stopgap) came in on a corpus refreshed on 2026-08-24. Each call block states its own boundary. Later procedural developments may locate the calls in time, but they do not supply evidence for them. No anomalies list has been scored against these calls.

**Scope.** All twelve FY27 House appropriations bills were investigated, every section of every bill: Agriculture-FDA ([H.R. 8646](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/8646)), Commerce-Justice-Science ([H.R. 8845](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/8845)), Defense ([H.R. 9495](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/9495)), Energy-Water ([H.R. 9022](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/9022)), Financial Services and General Government ([H.R. 8495](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/8495)), Homeland Security ([H.R. 9310](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/9310)), Interior-Environment ([H.R. 9171](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/9171)), Labor-HHS-Education ([H.R. 9260](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/9260)), Legislative Branch ([H.R. 9010](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/9010)), Military Construction-VA ([H.R. 8469](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/8469)), National Security and Department of State ([H.R. 8595](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/8595)), Transportation-HUD ([H.R. 9170](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/9170)).

No FY27 Senate appropriations text exists in this evidence base, and no call here assumes what that text will say. [H.R. 8800](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/8800), the defense authorization, was set aside from this pass; no call depends on it.

---

## Where the FY27 appropriations bills stand

The House has reported all twelve FY27 appropriations bills and passed four measures on the floor: three of the twelve—Military Construction-VA ([H.R. 8469](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/8469)), Agriculture-FDA ([H.R. 8646](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/8646)), and National Security and Department of State ([H.R. 8595](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/8595), which picked up [a Division B](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/8595/text/eh) on the floor)—plus a stopgap, [H.R. 9770](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/9770), [passed 2026-07-21](https://clerk.house.gov/Votes/2026272). The remaining nine sit at the committee-reported stage. Across the Capitol, there is still nothing to negotiate a full-year bill against: the Senate has reported none of its twelve bills, and the only FY27 text it has passed is a stopgap of its own.

[H.R. 9770](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/9770) continues funding at last year’s rates for the twelve appropriations acts it lists, and it runs to December 4, 2026. Every section of it was investigated separately, and every section came back the same: continuity plumbing. Not one section is policy cargo, pre-loaded or held back for December. The stopgap question resolved as this post went to press: the Senate answered with its own vehicle, [H.R. 6500](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/6500), running to December 11; it passed the Senate on 2026-08-08, and the House accepted the Senate’s text on 2026-09-01. That later text locates the grading calendar; it does not inform the calls. It includes additions the House stopgap did not—program extensions and a delayed grants rule, among others—and sits outside this evidence base. The deadline that matters is December 11.

Bills are vehicles. Provisions are cargo. That distinction carries most of what follows. For most provisions in these twelve FY27 appropriations bills, the remaining risk is not the provision itself. It is whether a full-year vehicle exists in December. The Transportation-HUD record states it flatly, section after section: the risk sits with the vehicle rather than the rider.

Every unresolved fight eventually lands in the same room. When a full-year appropriations bill gets assembled in a four-corners negotiation among the chair and ranking member of each chamber’s appropriations committee, riders are traded, narrowed, and quietly dropped. Everything the year has deferred arrives there at the same time.

Roughly fourteen hundred provisions were investigated across the twelve FY27 House appropriations bills, each against its lineage, the floor record, and the statutory text it touches. What follows are the non-obvious calls: the policy riders whose history, mechanism, or negotiating posture points somewhere other than the surface read.

| Provision | Call |
| --- | --- |
| [H.R. 9310 sec. 407](https://prism.vote/record/fy27-rider-survival#hr-9310-sec-407), the credible fear funding bar | Dies |
| [H.R. 8495 sec. 131](https://prism.vote/record/fy27-rider-survival#hr-8495-sec-131), the FinCEN funding block and status report | Modified: the report requirement survives, the funding block does not |
| [H.R. 8595 sec. 7042](https://prism.vote/record/fy27-rider-survival#hr-8595-sec-7042), five country conditions on foreign aid | Survives; South Africa condition only with a health and humanitarian carve-out |
| [H.R. 9495 sec. 8155](https://prism.vote/record/fy27-rider-survival#hr-9495-sec-8155), the diversity and Critical Race Theory funding bar | Modified: Critical Race Theory clause only |
| [H.R. 8845 sec. 209](https://prism.vote/record/fy27-rider-survival#hr-8845-sec-209), the deobligated-balances notification | Dies |
| [H.R. 8495 sec. 822](https://prism.vote/record/fy27-rider-survival#hr-8495-sec-822), the District vehicle-emissions enforcement bar | Dies |
| [H.R. 8595 sec. 7049](https://prism.vote/record/fy27-rider-survival#hr-8595-sec-7049), the UN certification rider | Paragraph 1 dies as written; paragraph 2 survives narrowed |

---

Call 1 · Homeland Security · boundary 2026-07-28

## H.R. 9310 sec. 407 — Dies

This rider bars funding for credible fear determinations made under the “significant possibility” test written into current law; in practice, it would raise the border bar to “more likely than not.”

**Dies.** The terrain is blocked, with no enacted comparable behind it.

Twenty-nine standalone bills, from the 113th Congress through the 119th, have gone after the same target: replacing “significant possibility” with a higher evidentiary bar. The list includes the Secure the Border Act ([H.R. 2, 118th](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/2)) and the closest thing to a purpose-built vehicle, the Strengthening Authorities For Expedited Removal Act ([H.R. 5838, 118th](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/5838)). None of the twenty-nine became law.

Nothing with this goal and this mechanism has been enacted anywhere in the analyzed provisions. Two immigration laws signed in 2025 went around this one sentence: the Laken Riley Act (Pub. L. 119-1) amended 8 U.S.C. section 1225 in January and left the credible fear definition alone, and the July reconciliation law (Pub. L. 119-21) reached the adjacent asylum fee provisions and left it alone as well. Through the end of 2025, “significant possibility” was still the operative statutory language.

The mechanism gives conferees an exit: a rider cannot amend the Immigration and Nationality Act; it can only withhold a single year of funding for determinations conducted under the standard the statute still requires, leaving officers interviewing under one rule with money they cannot spend on it. That conflict is challengeable on its face.

From the investigation

> Senate appropriators know the rider invites litigation and sets up a constitutional conflict between appropriations power and the INA, making it easier to justify stripping it in conference.

Evidence boundary: 2026-07-28

> blocked · 119-hr-9310 · sec. 407  
> The credible fear funding bar: twenty-nine predecessor bills across four Congresses, none enacted; two 2025 immigration laws amended the adjacent statute and left the standard untouched.  
> [Full investigation →](https://prism.vote/investigations/cc2bff3e-85db-4086-af49-96933dc5b615.md)

---

Call 2 · Financial Services and General Government · boundary 2026-07-28

## H.R. 8495 sec. 131 — Modified

This rider withholds all of FinCEN’s appropriations until Treasury finalizes its beneficial-ownership reporting rule. It also requires a status report on how the beneficial-ownership information already collected is being used.

**Modified: the report requirement survives; the funding block does not.** A conference kill of the block is near-certain; the report’s survival is moderate to high.

Two pieces of cargo ride here. They do not share a fate. The report is the modest half: an oversight reporting obligation of a kind Financial Services bills have carried before and bipartisan on its face.

The funding block is the other half. It has no ancestor in enacted law at this mechanism level; the one prior version, in the 118th Congress Financial Services bill, died with that bill. It reaches well past its stated target: conditioning every FinCEN dollar on a single rulemaking freezes Bank Secrecy Act administration and anti-money-laundering coordination along with beneficial-ownership enforcement. The record shows Senate Democrats demanding it be dropped or fundamentally narrowed.

Then the trigger. The rule the block waits on is an interim final rule already operative at 31 CFR 1010.380; finalizing it is a separate administrative step for Treasury. If Treasury takes it before the fiscal year opens on October 1, 2026, the condition is satisfied on day one, and the rider never restricts a dollar.

Watch the enacted text for the report requirement present and the funding block absent. One outside branch: the block returns narrowed, aimed only at [Corporate Transparency Act](https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?req=granuleid:USC-prelim-title31-section5336&num=0&edition=prelim) penalty assessment or beneficial-ownership enforcement pending finalization. Under the rule at the foot of this post, that branch is a miss. Alive in another shape is a miss.

Evidence boundary: 2026-07-28

> narrow · 119-hr-8495 · sec. 131  
> The FinCEN funding block conditions the agency’s entire appropriation on a rulemaking the administration itself controls and is already pursuing.  
> [Full investigation →](https://prism.vote/investigations/bc8d381b-9ba1-4d00-8e5a-2b1492b3dfb0.md)

---

Call 3 · National Security and Department of State · boundary 2026-07-28

## H.R. 8595 sec. 7042 — Survives, decomposed

This section carries five country conditions on foreign aid: DRC-Rwanda peace-agreement funding, a Nigeria certification hold, peace-agreement-only restrictions on Sudan and South Sudan, and a new certification that South Africa has ceased cooperating with United States adversaries.

**Survives, decomposed.** Four of the five conditions are continued cargo whose survival approaches certainty. The fifth, the South Africa certification, survives only with a health and humanitarian carve-out attached; as written, it does not appear. Graded by component: the core four and the South Africa condition, not jointly.

The section number is not new ground: its family runs to 49 provisions across nine Congresses, and the Nigeria hold, the Sudan and South Sudan peace restrictions, and the DRC-Rwanda peace support all carried into Public Law 119-75, signed in February—clear terrain, riding again this year in the same slot.

Set against the FY2026 section it continues, the text reduces the scope. That law set a $60 million floor for the DRC-Rwanda peace framework and ordered a Comptroller General audit of all Nigeria assistance over five years; neither survives into the FY2027 text, which adds the South Africa certification. Conference pressure runs the other way: Senate appropriators defending the FY2026 baseline will push to restore those specifics.

The South Africa certification is the one element with no ancestor in that family. Its machinery does have an ancestor: the FY2023 enacted law (Public Law 117-328) carried a Zimbabwe rule-of-law certification with the identical structure, running “except for health and education.” The target has never been tested, and this text includes no exception; as written, it would block all government-to-government assistance.

**What to watch.** For the South Africa condition, the Zimbabwe form: the certification kept, with a health and humanitarian carve-out attached, the fix Senate appropriators habitually apply when that template is aimed at a new country. For the core four, presence in the enacted text is the whole grade. If conference restores the $60 million floor or the Nigeria audit, that is the direction the pressure runs, and it is not graded.

Evidence boundary: 2026-07-28

> clear · 119-hr-8595 · sec. 7042  
> Four of five country conditions carried into Public Law 119-75 in February and ride again in the same slot; only the South Africa certification has no ancestor in the family.  
> [Full investigation →](https://prism.vote/investigations/1af708f9-f3e8-4ded-a8fc-3872cdaab646.md)

---

Call 4 · Defense · boundary 2026-08-24

## H.R. 9495 sec. 8155 — Modified

This policy rider bars agency funds for diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives, training, programs, offices, and officers, as well as for any concept associated with Critical Race Theory.

**Modified.** The broad diversity, equity, and inclusion clause comes out; a Critical Race Theory-only fragment is the ceiling of what conference will accept, and nothing in the current drafting would change that.

This exact combined text has been introduced verbatim across at least seven House appropriations vehicles in the 119th Congress alone. It traces back through a near-identical Critical Race Theory-only predecessor used across a dozen 118th Congress bills. The combined text has never been enacted as written.

One version did become law: a narrower cousin that kept only the Critical Race Theory language was enacted in the FY24 Consolidated Appropriations Act (PL 118-42). The combined version appeared in that same law’s House-passed text. The investigation pulled the enrolled text at the rider’s own section number in the MilCon-VA title carried into PL 118-42. The slot held a grazing-permit extension.

From the investigation

> The CRT/DEI rider itself did not survive conference; the bill became law, but this cargo was stripped out before that happened.

That names the mechanism: this cargo gets cut at the conference-and-enrollment stage even when the vehicle carrying it succeeds.

Unified control removes one point of friction, but a full-year bill still needs 60 votes in the Senate, and this text repeats the reach that got stripped last time.

**Watch for:** the Critical Race Theory clause standing alone in the enacted text, with the diversity, equity, and inclusion clause gone. If the combined text survives intact, this call is wrong. If both clauses vanish, the ceiling held and the floor did not, and this call is half right.

Evidence boundary: 2026-08-24

> blocked · 119-hr-9495 · sec. 8155  
> Fifteen-plus reintroductions across two Congresses; the one enacted version kept only the Critical Race Theory clause, and the combined text was stripped at enrollment.  
> [Full investigation →](https://prism.vote/investigations/08bb8c08-804f-4ade-866e-212ff83acf01.md)

---

Call 5 · Commerce-Justice-Science · boundary 2026-07-28

## H.R. 8845 sec. 209 — Dies

This rider triggers a notification requirement when appropriations deviate from designated amounts or when deobligated balances are used.

**Dies.** It will be absent from whatever text carries FY27 Commerce-Justice-Science funding. The terrain is blocked, without qualification.

The language is old. It has traveled with appropriations bills since the 110th Congress, appearing in 57 bills through the 119th Congress. Fifteen of those carries are identical text, not one word changed between them. Fourteen died with their bills. The fifteenth rode a bill that became law, PL 116-69, but in a draft superseded before signature; the provision is absent from the final negotiated text.

That zero-edit run is the tell. The observation is simple: across fifteen identical carries, the language never moved toward an enacted form. The inference is that negotiators have treated it as position-marking cargo rather than text being shaped for enactment.

Then the structural read, which is where this stops being furniture. The provision’s core mechanism cross-references “section 505 of this Act,” which makes it inoperable in any continuing resolution or omnibus that does not carry that section. If the endgame is a full-year CR, the defect matters directly. The balances it reaches for sit under permanent authority in any case. The notification mandate has no permanent hook.

Conference removal is the reading the evidence supports, not a tally of fifteen observed removals: one carry reached the President’s desk. It was stripped, and the other fourteen died with their vehicles.

From the investigation

> … it’s a provision being held as a statement of intent that both sides understand will be resolved in conference. And conference has resolved it the same way every time: by dropping it.

Evidence boundary: 2026-07-28

> blocked · 119-hr-8845 · sec. 209  
> Fifty-seven carries since the 110th Congress, fifteen of them word-identical, zero enacted — position-marking cargo with no permanent hook.  
> [Full investigation →](https://prism.vote/investigations/42a10e28-1b30-4538-b24f-bc0e57dceea7.md)

---

Call 6 · Financial Services and General Government · boundary 2026-07-28

## H.R. 8495 sec. 822 — Dies

This rider bars the District of Columbia from spending federal or local funds to enforce the California vehicle emission standards the District adopted in December 2023.

**Dies.** The record puts enactment at about 20 to 25 percent; the likeliest single outcome is that this rider is gone from whatever gets signed, but that is not a foregone conclusion.

The text is a fixture that has never landed: three bill versions across two Congresses, [H.R. 8773](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/8773) in the 118th and then [H.R. 5166](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/5166) and [this bill](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/8495/text/rh) in the 119th, carried forward without a single edit, and none became law. No enacted precedent exists for the mechanism either: an appropriations rider naming one agency’s final rule by date and topic inside the District of Columbia title of a funding bill.

Two of the three obstacles that stood in its way are gone. The veto threat was the first, and it was specific. The prior administration’s statement of policy on the 118th Congress bill named this provision and objected that it would bar the District from using both federal and local funds to enforce vehicle emission standards. That opposition operated at signature, downstream of everything Congress could decide.

The current administration is on the other side of the same policy: its statement on H.J.Res. 87, 88, and 89—the Congressional Review Act resolutions disapproving the California waivers that underlie the District’s rule—supports all three and recommends that the President sign them.

That reversal rests on a single document, the administration’s written statement on those three resolutions, uncorroborated by any floor record, committee report, or second statement.

With no prior-year enacted version behind it, this rider cannot be carried forward quietly. It has to affirmatively survive conference, by name, in a Senate where District riders of this kind have drawn poison-pill objections and a 60-vote demand.

The observable: whether the District of Columbia title of whatever vehicle carries FY27 Financial Services funding contains an enforcement bar naming the vehicle emission rule. Absence grades this call correct.

Evidence boundary: 2026-07-28

> narrow · 119-hr-8495 · sec. 822  
> Three carries, zero edits, zero enactments — and a veto threat replaced by an administration now on the other side of the same policy.  
> [Full investigation →](https://prism.vote/investigations/549ce428-580b-4d9a-9a7c-3ee3edd57d8d.md)

---

The last call is broken out of sequence and given the room it needs.

---

Call 7 · National Security and Department of State · boundary 2026-07-28

## H.R. 8595 sec. 7049 — Split

This rider conditions every U.S. contribution to the UN Secretariat on a written assurance from the Secretary-General that UNRWA staff will not be granted privileges and immunities in terrorism and human rights cases. It also cuts off funds to any Gaza-linked entity that fails to comply with an inspector general request within 90 days.

**Paragraph 1 dies as written; paragraph 2 survives narrowed.** The package is unlikely to clear conference intact. The central problem is institutional: as developed on the record, the certification paragraph asks the Secretary-General for an assurance he cannot unilaterally supply.

The conventional read is that this is a routine continuation: section 7049 has sat in State and foreign operations appropriations for fifteen years, and a section number that keeps reappearing in enacted bills normally marks the safest cargo on the page. That read is wrong, and why is visible only from underneath the number.

The number is a shell. What was enacted under it, verbatim, through at least 28 consecutive bills since the 111th Congress and again in Public Law 119-75, was the Yugoslavia War Crimes Tribunal drawdown authority. The FY27 text does not amend that provision. It replaces it. Compared with the enacted section it displaces, the FY27 language shares almost nothing, moves sharply upward in scope and cost, and changes the instrument from a spending authority to an enforcement condition.

Then the mechanism itself. UNRWA is a subsidiary organ of the General Assembly, and its immunities flow from the [1946 Convention on the Privileges and Immunities of the United Nations](https://treaties.un.org/Pages/ViewDetails.aspx?src=TREATY&mtdsg_no=III-1&chapter=3), which the Secretariat administers but does not fully control for subsidiary organs. The Secretary-General lacks the unilateral authority to commit that those immunities will not be asserted in criminal and human rights cases involving that staff. A condition that cannot be satisfied converts paragraph 1 into a permanent freeze on every U.S. contribution to the UN Secretariat, beyond anything Congress has enacted and, the investigation reads, a first-round concession demand for Senate negotiators.

What Congress does when it enacts UNRWA restrictions runs the other way. In the FY24 consolidated act and again in Public Law 118-50, it used a direct UNRWA-specific funding prohibition, not the immunity-waiver certification that appears here. The adjacent family—the Palestinian Authority and terrorism prohibitions—has been enacted repeatedly across eight Congresses, always aimed at specific funding flows to named entities. It has never conditioned an entire UN account line on a certification from the UN Secretary-General. That enacted pattern supplies the likely conference exit.

From the investigation

> The mechanism is logically constructed as a lever, but the fulcrum is unreachable. In conference, this would be the primary negotiating target.

Two independent investigations reached the same conclusion: the earlier one, with lineage tools, carries the replacement history; the later one, with search tools, carries the floor, committee, and statutory records. They agree on the disposition and on the split between the paragraphs.

**Predicted posture.** Watch enacted text for a UNRWA-specific restriction in the shape Congress has already passed, a direct funding prohibition or a Secretary of State certification of conduct reforms, paired with a moderated inspector general access condition: a narrowed “covered entity” definition, or a response window longer than 90 days. The written Secretary-General assurance is missing. If paragraph 1 is deleted with no UNRWA-specific successor at all, that is a hit on the primary claim and a miss on the predicted posture. The vehicle itself is unsettled; the call is on the cargo, graded against whatever text carries State and foreign operations funding for FY27.

Evidence boundary: 2026-07-28

> narrow · 119-hr-8595 · sec. 7049  
> A fifteen-year section number hollowed into a shell: the Yugoslavia drawdown authority replaced by a certification no Secretary-General can give.  
> [Full investigation →](https://prism.vote/investigations/3c194772-db92-4817-966e-757494d899d5.md)

[Earlier investigation →](https://prism.vote/investigations/fa9dd463-39b4-4b5f-a50e-3d0b9da9ee30.md)

---

## Five more FY27 appropriations rider calls

Five more, one line each.

- **Survives** — [H.R. 8845 sec. 560](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/8845/text/rh), the Commerce-Justice-Science bar on funds for a federal firearms registry: present in the enacted FY27 Commerce-Justice-Science text if a full-year vehicle closes, absent if FY27 ends in a continuing resolution. [Full investigation →](https://prism.vote/investigations/b87e676a-8b1b-4ade-942f-40055ba199c9.md)
- **Dies** — [H.R. 9010 sec. 116](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/9010/text/rh), the legislative branch rider defunding the Comptroller General’s impoundment lawsuits unless both chambers first pass a concurrent resolution: absent from the enacted FY27 legislative branch text. [Full investigation →](https://prism.vote/investigations/ea299d8e-05b0-4ebf-94e8-94ae8b3e3133.md)
- **Survives** — [H.R. 9260 sec. 516](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/9260/text/rh), the Labor-HHS operating-plan rider: the 45-day operating-plan requirement, with its itemization of any FY27 allocation that departs from the enacted law, the committee report, or the budget request, present in any enacted FY27 Labor-HHS or consolidated appropriations act. [Full investigation →](https://prism.vote/investigations/98f9d3dc-4668-4007-a856-59395a68784a.md)
- **Dies** — [H.R. 9022 sec. 108](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/9022/text/rh), the Energy-Water bar on the Army Corps enforcing its firearms rule against state-law-compliant holders: absent from the enacted FY27 Energy-Water text. [Full investigation →](https://prism.vote/investigations/51a40bbb-9332-4508-8c73-126d75ba5cc0.md)
- **Dies** — [H.R. 9310 sec. 543](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/9310/text/rh), the Homeland rider barring federal funds from being used to discriminate against people who act on the sincere belief that marriage is between one man and one woman: absent from whatever vehicle carries FY27 Homeland funding into law. [Full investigation →](https://prism.vote/investigations/85fa2b36-dc00-4e17-b740-7636e0e54f8e.md)

Evidence boundary: 2026-07-28 (all five)

---

## How these FY27 appropriations predictions will be graded

Every FY27 appropriations call above gets graded, with the one-line calls on the same terms as the full ones.

**First checkpoint: 2026-12-04**, the day the stopgap expires. Each call is read against whatever vehicle text exists then. Absence is an outcome and is recorded as one. If no full-year vehicle has resolved the call, the grade is directional only, and says so.

**Full grade: at FY27 enactment**, against enacted text, on three things.

Exact disposition. The provision survived, or it did not. Where a call names components, grade each on its own and give it its own December line: the four continued conditions and the South Africa certification separately; paragraph 1 and paragraph 2 separately.

Posture match. On calls that predict a modified form, the predicted shape is part of the call: the carve-out, the report-only version, the narrowed prohibition. A provision that survives in some other shape is a miss.

Strength as stated. Almost every call here is categorical rather than numbered, and each is graded as made. Where a call states a number, that number is what gets graded. Nothing gets converted into a percentage after the fact.

Wrong-but-specific is the accepted failure mode. Every call names something a reader can find in the enacted text and judge for themselves.

Created 2026-08-31. That is the version that gets graded.

The calls are fixed now. December reads them back.

---

Canonical: https://prism.vote/record/fy27-rider-survival
